A believer in traditional Tory economics, Sunak set to work stabilising the nation’s finances. The economic challenges were indeed profound, with high interest rates and inflation. Energy prices had rocketed due to the war in Ukraine and many predicted a grim recession. Additionally, international economic confidence in Britain had been heavily damaged by the Truss experiment and would have to be rebuilt. Sunak retained Jeremy Hunt as his Chancellor, seeing him as the proverbial ‘steady pair of hands’. The decisions contained in November’s budget were painful: tax rises coupled with spending cuts.

From the outset of Sunak’s premiership, the Conservative Party was deeply unpopular, and re-election in 2024 was a forlorn hope.  The Party had been in power since 2010 and the public were tired of them after the experience of Johnson and Truss. On two occasions, at the beginning and towards the end of 2023, Sunak attempted to shift the polls with big relaunches. In October, he promised to break the “30-year political status quo” and signalled his intention by cancelling part of the HS2 railway. But, nothing worked and the Tories were 20 points below Labour at the beginning of 2024.

Foreign affairs would take a great deal of Sunak’s time. Sunak continued British support for Ukraine and made a visit to Kyiv to meet President Zelensky his first European trip in November 2022. He pledged a further large aid package in 2024 as well and urged Britain’s diplomatic allies to take an assertive approach to the Russian aggression.

In February 2023, Sunak agreed the Windsor Framework with the European Union. It delivered a new set of dual regulations to replace the original Northern Ireland Protocol. Goods staying in Northern Ireland faced minimal checks, whilst goods likely to move into the EU would be more tightly regulated. A ‘Stormont brake’ allowed the Northern Irish Assembly to object to EU goods rules being applied. The framework generally granted the UK greater freedom over VAT and subsidy rules. Sunak was able to convince a sceptical Tory party to back the plan in Parliament. The agreement was a considerable accomplishment and improved relations with the EU. It also helped to pave the way for the restoration of power sharing in Northern Ireland in February 2024.

On 7 October 2023, Hamas attacked Israel, leading to a major conflict in the Middle East. Israel fought off the attack and then launched a destructive counterattack on Gaza. Sunak pledged British support for Israel, though he was uneasy at the level of civilian loss in the subsequent conflict.

The Middle East Crisis escalated. In January 2024, Sunak ordered British forces to strike, alongside US forces, at Houthi targets in Yemen, which were trying to close the Red Sea to maritime traffic. In April, he ordered British forces to assist the Israeli military in defending the country from Iranian drone attack. The war also created bitter controversy in Britain, especially amongst the Muslim population, with major demonstrations in London, contributing greatly to escalating social tensions. Consequently, Sunak addressed the nation in March 2024, condemning ‘a shocking increase in extremist disruption and criminality.’

Immigration was another major issue. In 2019, Johnson had promised lower immigration. But, during his premiership, he had allowed net immigration to increase, and it reached over 750,000 a year. Further anger was created by the issue of illegal immigration via small boats crossing the English Channel. Sunak’s solution was an ambitious and controversial plan to relocate illegal immigrants in Rwanda, but the scheme was not running by the end of Sunak’s premiership and was ultimately a failure. As such, the issue contributed to the government’s plummeting popularity.

In November 2023, Home Secretary Suella Braverman sharply condemned the pro-Palestine protests and the policing around them in an article for The Times. Though she had shared the article with Number 10, their requested changes had not been included. Tensions between Sunak and Braverman had been rising for a while, with sharp disagreements over policy on immigration and trade, together with Sunak’s irritation at Braverman’s freewheeling style. He decided to replace her.

With Braverman’s dismissal, Sunak began a wider reshuffle of his government on 13 November 2023. To great surprise, former Prime Minister David Cameron arrived at Downing Street to be appointed Foreign Secretary. This was an enormous coup de theatre and had been kept completely secret. Cameron was not even in Parliament and was subsequently raised to the House of Lords. The appointment took some of the pressure off Sunak, because Cameron could take on considerable responsibility for foreign affairs and diplomacy. Cameron’s appointment helped to reinforce Sunak’s focus on professionalism and stability in uncertain times.

Perhaps Sunak’s greatest successes were in the field he knew best, economics. Sunak quickly demonstrated sound economic leadership, and within a few months, the markets had normalised after the Truss shock. He worked with the Bank of England to reduce borrowing costs. Inflation, which rose above 11% in October 2022, fell below 3% by the summer of 2024. A major trade agreement (the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership) was signed, which aligned Britain with Australia, Chile, Malaysia, Japan, Vietnam, and New Zealand. The predicted recession of late 2023 was shallow, and the economy returned to growth over 2024, with a 0.7% increase in GDP in the first quarter of that year.

Sunak announced a general election on the 22 May 2024, surprising his own MPs and his own government ministers, who had thought he intended to wait until the autumn. While it was a bold move, there was little that he could do to shift the polls. His performance in the debates was strong, especially on economic matters. But, he then made a major blunder by leaving the commemoration for the 80^th anniversary of the D-Day landings early, creating a minor scandal.

Whatever Sunak’s missteps, it probably made little difference. The 2024 election saw the Tories assailed from all sides. Labour regained its northern seats, whilst the Lib Dems seized the South and Southwestern Shires. From the right, Nigel Farage’s energised Reform Party mounted an insurgent’s campaign, which delivered him four million votes (third to only Labour and the Tories) and five Parliamentary seats.

When the result came, it was indeed the thrashing so long predicted. Two hundred and fifty one Conservative seats were lost, and only 121 Tory MPs returned to Parliament, the worst result in the Party’s history. Sunak resigned immediately.

In his departure speech, he reflected on his premiership, saying he was proud of his achievements. He said that ‘One of the most remarkable things about Britain is just how unremarkable it is that two generations after my grandparents came here with little, I could become Prime Minister and that I could watch my two young daughters light Diwali candles on the steps in Downing Street. We must hold true to that idea of who we are that vision of kindness, decency, and tolerance that has always been the British way.’